It was not clear how long such betting might last; the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which last year prohibited the company from offering them, said it would appeal the ruling as quickly as possible. Contrasting his client with foreign companies who take bets from American customers on U.S. elections without U.S. government approval, Roth said Kalshi is trying to do things the right way, under government regulation. “It invested significantly in these markets,” he said during Thursday’s hearing. “They spent millions of dollars. It would be perverse if all that investment went up in smoke.”
But Raagnee Beri, an attorney for the commission, said allowing such bets could invite malicious activities designed to influence the outcome of elections and undermine already fragile public confidence in the voting process. “These contracts would give market participants a $100 million incentive to influence the market on the election,” she said. “There is a very severe public interest threat.” She used the analogy of someone who has taken an investment position in corn commodities. “Somebody puts out misinformation about a drought, that a drought is coming,” she said. “That could move the market on the price of corn. The same thing could happen here. The commission is not required to suffer the flood before building a dam.”
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